Heerenveen
Excelsior
Heerenveen – Excelsior
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.00 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Heerenveen at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.00 goals for Heerenveen and 1.21 for Excelsior. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Heerenveen took 5 points and Excelsior 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Heerenveen, 1 draw, 2 wins for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heerenveen | 1.62 | 57 % | -12.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Excelsior | 4.70 | 20 % | +3.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Heerenveen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Heerenveen
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Excelsior
- Excelsior1-2Heerenveen
- Heerenveen2-1Excelsior
- Excelsior3-0Heerenveen
- Heerenveen0-3Excelsior
- Heerenveen0-0Excelsior
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heerenveen – Excelsior?
Our model gives 1 · Heerenveen a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Heerenveen win 54 %, draw 24 %, Excelsior win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Heerenveen – Excelsior?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.