Nordstern Arena Horsens
AC Horsens
Randers FC
AC Horsens – Randers FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.65 – 1.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AC Horsens at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.65 goals for AC Horsens and 1.23 for Randers FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 34 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.75, the predicted outcome carries +28.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, AC Horsens took 5 points and Randers FC 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Horsens | 2.75 | 34 % | +28.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -4.5 % |
| 2Randers FC | 2.35 |
Form and statistics
AC Horsens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Randers FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Horsens – Randers FC?
Our model gives 1 · AC Horsens a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Horsens win 47 %, draw 27 %, Randers FC win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for AC Horsens – Randers FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.