Holstein Kiel
Hertha Berlin
Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hertha Berlin away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.28 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.63 for Hertha Berlin. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Holstein Kiel took 2 points and Hertha Berlin 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Holstein Kiel, 0 draws, 2 wins for Hertha Berlin. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holstein Kiel | 2.75 | 34 % | -27.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | +2.7 % |
| 2Hertha Berlin | 2.20 | 42 % | +4.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Holstein Kiel
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hertha Berlin
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Holstein Kiel
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin0-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel0-1Hertha Berlin
- Holstein Kiel2-3Hertha Berlin
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin?
Our model gives 2 · Hertha Berlin a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Holstein Kiel win 26 %, draw 26 %, Hertha Berlin win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.