Energie Cottbus
1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus – 1. FC Nürnberg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 1.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Nürnberg away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.43 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.89 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Energie Cottbus took 5 points and 1. FC Nürnberg 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Energie Cottbus | 3.20 | 29 % | -8.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -6.9 % |
| 21. FC Nürnberg | 1.95 | 48 % | -6.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Energie Cottbus
- Last 5 matches
- At home
1. FC Nürnberg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Energie Cottbus – 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model gives 2 · 1. FC Nürnberg a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Energie Cottbus win 29 %, draw 23 %, 1. FC Nürnberg win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for Energie Cottbus – 1. FC Nürnberg?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.