Al Qadsiah
Abha
Al Qadsiah – Abha
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 87 %
- Most likely score
- 3-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.23 – 0.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Qadsiah at home (87 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.23 goals for Al Qadsiah and 0.67 for Abha. Bookmakers say the same thing: 83 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Al Qadsiah took 11 points and Abha 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 75 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Qadsiah | 1.12 | 83 % | -2.6 % |
| XDraw | 8.50 | 11 % | -23.9 % |
| 2Abha | 15.00 | 6 % | -38.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Qadsiah
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Abha
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Qadsiah – Abha?
Our model gives 1 · Al Qadsiah a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Qadsiah win 87 %, draw 9 %, Abha win 4 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Qadsiah – Abha?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.