Henan
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Henan – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Henan at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Henan and 1.23 for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Henan took 5 points and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Henan, 0 draws, 4 wins for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Henan | 1.76 | 53 % | -26.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +4.8 % |
| 2Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 4.30 | 22 % | +25.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Henan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Henan
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1-2Henan
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1-0Henan
- Henan3-4Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1-0Henan
- Henan1-2Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Henan – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
Our model gives 1 · Henan a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Henan win 42 %, draw 29 %, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Henan – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.