Estudiantes de La Plata
Flamengo
Estudiantes de La Plata – Flamengo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.12 – 1.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.12 goals for Estudiantes de La Plata and 1.35 for Flamengo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Estudiantes de La Plata took 10 points and Flamengo 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Estudiantes de La Plata, 1 draw, 2 wins for Flamengo. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de La Plata | 3.65 | 26 % | +0.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -15.1 % |
| 2Flamengo | 2.15 | 44 % | -3.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Estudiantes de La Plata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Estudiantes de La Plata
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Flamengo
- Flamengo1-0Estudiantes de La Plata
- Estudiantes de La Plata1-1Flamengo
- Estudiantes de La Plata1-0Flamengo
- Flamengo2-1Estudiantes de La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estudiantes de La Plata – Flamengo?
Our model gives 2 · Flamengo a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estudiantes de La Plata win 27 %, draw 28 %, Flamengo win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for Estudiantes de La Plata – Flamengo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.