Huracán
Gimnasia La Plata
Huracán – Gimnasia La Plata
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.26 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Huracán at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Huracán and 0.95 for Gimnasia La Plata. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. Over their last five matches, Huracán took 10 points and Gimnasia La Plata 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Huracán, 1 draw, 0 wins for Gimnasia La Plata. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Huracán | 2.45 | 38 % | +12.4 % |
| XDraw | 2.75 | 34 % | -19.6 % |
| 2Gimnasia La Plata | 3.35 | 28 % | -16.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Huracán
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gimnasia La Plata
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Huracán
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Gimnasia La Plata
- Gimnasia La Plata0-3Huracán
- Huracán0-0Gimnasia La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Huracán – Gimnasia La Plata?
Our model gives 1 · Huracán a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Huracán win 46 %, draw 29 %, Gimnasia La Plata win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Huracán – Gimnasia La Plata?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.