Benfica
Celtic
Benfica – Celtic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 68 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.41 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Benfica at home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.41 goals for Benfica and 1.07 for Celtic. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 76 %. Over their last five matches, Benfica took 12 points and Celtic 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 68 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 1.25 | 76 % | -14.8 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | +0.5 % |
| 2Celtic | 10.50 | 9 % | +65.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Celtic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Benfica – Celtic?
Our model gives 1 · Benfica a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Benfica win 68 %, draw 16 %, Celtic win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Benfica – Celtic?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.