Union St.-Gilloise
Real Sociedad
Union St.-Gilloise – Real Sociedad
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 71 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.35 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Union St.-Gilloise at home (71 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.35 goals for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.95 for Real Sociedad. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.40, the predicted outcome carries +71.5 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Union St.-Gilloise took 13 points and Real Sociedad 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union St.-Gilloise | 2.40 | 40 % | +71.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | -38.9 % |
| 2Real Sociedad |
Form and statistics
Union St.-Gilloise
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise – Real Sociedad?
Our model gives 1 · Union St.-Gilloise a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Union St.-Gilloise win 71 %, draw 17 %, Real Sociedad win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Union St.-Gilloise – Real Sociedad?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.