AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Be'er
AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.93 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AZ Alkmaar at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.93 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.86 for Hapoel Be'er. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar took 7 points and Hapoel Be'er 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 1.30 | 73 % | -15.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 17 % | +10.6 % |
| 2Hapoel Be'er | 9.00 | 11 % | +42.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hapoel Be'er
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er?
Our model gives 1 · AZ Alkmaar a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AZ Alkmaar win 65 %, draw 19 %, Hapoel Be'er win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.