Al Hazem
Al Fateh
Al Hazem – Al Fateh
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 14, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Hazem at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Al Hazem and 1.11 for Al Fateh. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Al Hazem took 6 points and Al Fateh 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Al Hazem, 2 draws, 1 win for Al Fateh. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hazem | 2.55 | 36 % | +19.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +2.6 % |
| 2Al Fateh | 2.45 | 38 % | -39.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Hazem
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Fateh
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Al Hazem
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Al Fateh
- Al Fateh1-1Al Hazem
- Al Hazem0-0Al Fateh
- Al Fateh2-1Al Hazem
- Al Hazem2-0Al Fateh
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Hazem – Al Fateh?
Our model gives 1 · Al Hazem a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Hazem win 47 %, draw 28 %, Al Fateh win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Hazem – Al Fateh?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.