Fluminense
Palmeiras
Fluminense – Palmeiras
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fluminense at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Fluminense and 1.28 for Palmeiras. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Fluminense took 6 points and Palmeiras 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Fluminense, 1 draw, 2 wins for Palmeiras. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fluminense | 2.95 | 32 % | +12.4 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 33 % | -23.7 % |
| 2Palmeiras | 2.65 | 35 % | -6.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fluminense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palmeiras
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Fluminense
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Palmeiras
- Fluminense3-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-1Fluminense
- Palmeiras0-0Fluminense
- Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras0-1Fluminense
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fluminense – Palmeiras?
Our model gives 1 · Fluminense a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fluminense win 38 %, draw 27 %, Palmeiras win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Fluminense – Palmeiras?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.