Atlético-MG
Montevideo City Torque
Atlético-MG – Montevideo City Torque
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.86 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético-MG at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.86 goals for Atlético-MG and 0.85 for Montevideo City Torque. Bookmakers say the same thing: 69 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético-MG took 11 points and Montevideo City Torque 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético-MG | 1.34 | 69 % | -13.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | -10.3 % |
| 2Montevideo City Torque | 8.50 | 11 % | +41.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Montevideo City Torque
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético-MG – Montevideo City Torque?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético-MG a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético-MG win 64 %, draw 19 %, Montevideo City Torque win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético-MG – Montevideo City Torque?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.