Sarmiento (Junín)
River Plate
Sarmiento (Junín) – River Plate
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.93 – 1.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards River Plate away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.93 goals for Sarmiento (Junín) and 1.50 for River Plate. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Sarmiento (Junín) took 7 points and River Plate 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sarmiento (Junín), 1 draw, 2 wins for River Plate. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarmiento (Junín) | 5.25 | 18 % | +21.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +3.9 % |
| 2River Plate | 1.68 | 55 % | -21.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Sarmiento (Junín)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
River Plate
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sarmiento (Junín)
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- River Plate
- River Plate2-0Sarmiento (Junín)
- River Plate0-1Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)1-1River Plate
- River Plate1-0Sarmiento (Junín)
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sarmiento (Junín) – River Plate?
Our model gives 2 · River Plate a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sarmiento (Junín) win 23 %, draw 30 %, River Plate win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for Sarmiento (Junín) – River Plate?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.