Manchester City
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.07 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.07 goals for Manchester City and 1.28 for Paris Saint-Germain. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Manchester City took 15 points and Paris Saint-Germain 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Manchester City, 0 draws, 1 win for Paris Saint-Germain. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 2.15 | 44 % | +19.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -24.9 % |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 3.00 | 32 % | -23.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Manchester City
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain4-2Manchester City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model gives 1 · Manchester City a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Manchester City win 55 %, draw 19 %, Paris Saint-Germain win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.