Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
Queens Park Rangers – Derby County
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 13, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Queens Park Rangers at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Queens Park Rangers and 1.05 for Derby County. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Queens Park Rangers took 4 points and Derby County 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Queens Park Rangers, 0 draws, 3 wins for Derby County. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queens Park Rangers | 1.71 | 55 % | -19.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 24 % | +9.3 % |
| 2Derby County | 4.50 | 21 % | +11.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Queens Park Rangers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Queens Park Rangers
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Derby County
- Queens Park Rangers2-3Derby County
- Derby County1-0Queens Park Rangers
- Queens Park Rangers4-0Derby County
- Derby County2-0Queens Park Rangers
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Queens Park Rangers – Derby County?
Our model gives 1 · Queens Park Rangers a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Queens Park Rangers win 47 %, draw 28 %, Derby County win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Queens Park Rangers – Derby County?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.