Al Sadd
Al Hilal
Al Sadd – Al Hilal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 2.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Hilal away from home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.24 goals for Al Sadd and 2.22 for Al Hilal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Al Sadd took 8 points and Al Hilal 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Al Sadd, 2 draws, 1 win for Al Hilal. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Sadd | 4.70 | 20 % | -16.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -24.3 % |
| 2Al Hilal | 1.60 | 59 % | +4.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Sadd
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Hilal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Al Sadd
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Al Hilal
- Al Hilal3-3Al Sadd
- Al Hilal3-1Al Sadd
- Al Sadd1-1Al Hilal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Sadd – Al Hilal?
Our model gives 2 · Al Hilal a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Sadd win 18 %, draw 17 %, Al Hilal win 65 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Sadd – Al Hilal?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.