Buriram United
Beijing Guoan
Buriram United – Beijing Guoan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.11 – 1.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Beijing Guoan away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Buriram United and 1.71 for Beijing Guoan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.35, the predicted outcome carries +76.5 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Buriram United took 6 points and Beijing Guoan 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Buriram United | 2.10 | 45 % | -51.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -12.9 % |
| 2Beijing Guoan | 3.35 |
Form and statistics
Buriram United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Beijing Guoan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Buriram United – Beijing Guoan?
Our model gives 2 · Beijing Guoan a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Buriram United win 23 %, draw 24 %, Beijing Guoan win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for Buriram United – Beijing Guoan?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.