Athletic
Londrina
Athletic – Londrina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Athletic at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Athletic and 1.05 for Londrina. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Athletic took 5 points and Londrina 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Athletic, 0 draws, 1 win for Londrina. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletic | 2.10 | 44 % | -0.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -11.4 % |
| 2Londrina | 3.35 | 28 % | -13.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Athletic
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Londrina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Athletic
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Londrina
- Londrina2-0Athletic
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletic – Londrina?
Our model gives 1 · Athletic a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Athletic win 47 %, draw 27 %, Londrina win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Athletic – Londrina?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.