RB Leipzig
PSV Eindhoven
RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 1.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74 %
- Both teams to score
- 73 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards RB Leipzig at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.01 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.84 for PSV Eindhoven. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, RB Leipzig took 6 points and PSV Eindhoven 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 74 %. Both teams to score: 73 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Leipzig | 1.74 | 54 % | -24.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.42 | 21 % | -13.2 % |
| 2PSV Eindhoven | 3.92 | 24 % | +45.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
RB Leipzig
- Last 5 matches
- At home
PSV Eindhoven
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven?
Our model gives 1 · RB Leipzig a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: RB Leipzig win 43 %, draw 20 %, PSV Eindhoven win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.