Arsenal
Lille
Arsenal – Lille
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 71 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.25 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal at home (71 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.25 goals for Arsenal and 0.85 for Lille. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 77 %. Over their last five matches, Arsenal took 12 points and Lille 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 1.24 | 77 % | -12.4 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | +8.8 % |
| 2Lille | 12.00 | 8 % | +40.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lille
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal – Lille?
Our model gives 1 · Arsenal a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Arsenal win 71 %, draw 17 %, Lille win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Arsenal – Lille?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.