Millwall
Swansea City
Millwall – Swansea City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Millwall at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Millwall and 1.15 for Swansea City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Millwall took 5 points and Swansea City 10 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Millwall, 1 draw, 0 wins for Swansea City. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 2.50 | 38 % | +5.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +2.1 % |
| 2Swansea City | 2.64 | 36 % | -24.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Millwall
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Swansea City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Millwall
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Swansea City
- Millwall2-1Swansea City
- Swansea City1-1Millwall
- Millwall1-0Swansea City
- Swansea City0-1Millwall
- Swansea City0-1Millwall
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Millwall – Swansea City?
Our model gives 1 · Millwall a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Millwall win 42 %, draw 29 %, Swansea City win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Millwall – Swansea City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.