Burnley
Charlton Athletic
Burnley – Charlton Athletic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 12, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.80 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Burnley at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.80 goals for Burnley and 0.92 for Charlton Athletic. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Burnley took 5 points and Charlton Athletic 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 1.60 | 59 % | -8.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 5.38 | 17 % | -2.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Charlton Athletic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley – Charlton Athletic?
Our model gives 1 · Burnley a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burnley win 57 %, draw 25 %, Charlton Athletic win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Burnley – Charlton Athletic?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.