Newcastle Jets
Gamba Osaka
Newcastle Jets – Gamba Osaka
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 1.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newcastle Jets at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.74 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.33 for Gamba Osaka. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 29 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.20, the predicted outcome carries +55.9 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Newcastle Jets took 6 points and Gamba Osaka 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle Jets | 3.20 | 29 % | +55.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -8.7 % |
| 2Gamba Osaka | 2.00 |
Form and statistics
Newcastle Jets
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gamba Osaka
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle Jets – Gamba Osaka?
Our model gives 1 · Newcastle Jets a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Newcastle Jets win 49 %, draw 23 %, Gamba Osaka win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle Jets – Gamba Osaka?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.