Al Wasl
Al Ahli
Al Wasl – Al Ahli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.08 – 1.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Ahli away from home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.08 goals for Al Wasl and 1.97 for Al Ahli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Al Wasl took 1 point and Al Ahli 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Al Wasl, 0 draws, 1 win for Al Ahli. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Wasl | 3.50 | 27 % | -31.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -16.8 % |
| 2Al Ahli | 1.90 | 49 % | +13.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Wasl
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Ahli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Al Wasl
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Al Ahli
- Al Wasl0-2Al Ahli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Wasl – Al Ahli?
Our model gives 2 · Al Ahli a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Wasl win 19 %, draw 21 %, Al Ahli win 59 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Wasl – Al Ahli?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.