Botafogo-SP
Ceará
Botafogo-SP – Ceará
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Botafogo-SP at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.21 goals for Botafogo-SP and 1.06 for Ceará. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Botafogo-SP took 7 points and Ceará 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Botafogo-SP, 1 draw, 2 wins for Ceará. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo-SP | 2.00 | 46 % | -19.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Ceará | 3.65 | 25 % | +9.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Botafogo-SP
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ceará
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Botafogo-SP
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Ceará
- Ceará0-1Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP1-4Ceará
- Ceará4-1Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP2-2Ceará
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo-SP – Ceará?
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo-SP a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo-SP win 40 %, draw 30 %, Ceará win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Botafogo-SP – Ceará?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.