Red Bull Bragantino
Cruzeiro
Red Bull Bragantino – Cruzeiro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Red Bull Bragantino at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Red Bull Bragantino and 1.14 for Cruzeiro. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Red Bull Bragantino took 2 points and Cruzeiro 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Red Bull Bragantino, 1 draw, 3 wins for Cruzeiro. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Bull Bragantino | 2.20 | 43 % | -6.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +0.9 % |
| 2Cruzeiro | 3.00 | 31 % | -13.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Red Bull Bragantino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruzeiro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Red Bull Bragantino
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-1Red Bull Bragantino
- Cruzeiro2-1Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino1-0Cruzeiro
- Red Bull Bragantino1-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-1Red Bull Bragantino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Red Bull Bragantino – Cruzeiro?
Our model gives 1 · Red Bull Bragantino a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Red Bull Bragantino win 43 %, draw 28 %, Cruzeiro win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Red Bull Bragantino – Cruzeiro?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.