Lanús
Vélez Sarsfield
Lanús – Vélez Sarsfield
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lanús at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.23 goals for Lanús and 1.00 for Vélez Sarsfield. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lanús took 10 points and Vélez Sarsfield 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Lanús, 2 draws, 1 win for Vélez Sarsfield. Over 2.5 goals: 39 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lanús | 2.20 | 42 % | -10.7 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 32 % | -11.5 % |
| 2Vélez Sarsfield | 3.55 | 26 % | +4.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Lanús
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vélez Sarsfield
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Lanús
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield0-1Lanús
- Vélez Sarsfield3-0Lanús
- Lanús0-0Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield0-0Lanús
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lanús – Vélez Sarsfield?
Our model gives 1 · Lanús a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lanús win 41 %, draw 30 %, Vélez Sarsfield win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Lanús – Vélez Sarsfield?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.