Fortaleza
CRB
Fortaleza – CRB
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.40 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fortaleza at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.40 goals for Fortaleza and 1.06 for CRB. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fortaleza took 9 points and CRB 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Fortaleza, 1 draw, 0 wins for CRB. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 1.76 | 53 % | -15.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -1.1 % |
| 2CRB | 4.30 | 22 % | +5.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
- At home
CRB
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Fortaleza
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- CRB
- CRB1-1Fortaleza
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fortaleza – CRB?
Our model gives 1 · Fortaleza a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fortaleza win 48 %, draw 27 %, CRB win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Fortaleza – CRB?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.