Coritiba
Botafogo
Coritiba – Botafogo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Botafogo away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Coritiba and 1.40 for Botafogo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Coritiba took 4 points and Botafogo 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Coritiba, 2 draws, 0 wins for Botafogo. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 2.60 | 36 % | -11.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -0.9 % |
| 2Botafogo | 2.50 | 37 % | -7.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Coritiba
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Botafogo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Coritiba
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Botafogo
- Botafogo2-2Coritiba
- Coritiba1-1Botafogo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba – Botafogo?
Our model gives 2 · Botafogo a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Coritiba win 34 %, draw 29 %, Botafogo win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Coritiba – Botafogo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.