FC Famalicao
Alverca
FC Famalicao – Alverca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Famalicao at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for FC Famalicao and 0.99 for Alverca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Famalicao took 6 points and Alverca 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Famalicao, 0 draws, 1 win for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Famalicao | 1.83 | 51 % | -4.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -15.9 % |
| 2Alverca | 4.58 | 20 % | +1.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
FC Famalicao
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alverca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- FC Famalicao
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Alverca
- FC Famalicao1-0Alverca
- Alverca1-0FC Famalicao
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Famalicao – Alverca?
Our model gives 1 · FC Famalicao a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Famalicao win 52 %, draw 25 %, Alverca win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Famalicao – Alverca?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.