Coventry City
Newcastle United
Coventry City – Newcastle United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newcastle United away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.34 goals for Coventry City and 1.40 for Newcastle United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Coventry City took 3 points and Newcastle United 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coventry City | 3.23 | 29 % | +11.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +0.0 % |
| 2Newcastle United | 2.15 | 44 % | -19.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Coventry City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coventry City – Newcastle United?
Our model gives 2 · Newcastle United a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Coventry City win 35 %, draw 28 %, Newcastle United win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for Coventry City – Newcastle United?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.