Dijon FCO
Metz
Dijon FCO – Metz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dijon FCO at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Dijon FCO and 1.12 for Metz. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Dijon FCO took 8 points and Metz 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dijon FCO | 2.65 | 35 % | +13.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -3.8 % |
| 2Metz | 2.45 | 38 % | -27.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Dijon FCO
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Metz
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dijon FCO – Metz?
Our model gives 1 · Dijon FCO a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dijon FCO win 43 %, draw 27 %, Metz win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Dijon FCO – Metz?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.