Malmö FF
Kalmar FF
Malmö FF – Kalmar FF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.85 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Malmö FF at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.85 goals for Malmö FF and 0.98 for Kalmar FF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Malmö FF took 7 points and Kalmar FF 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for Malmö FF, 2 draws, 1 win for Kalmar FF. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malmö FF | 1.76 | 53 % | +4.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -8.6 % |
| 2Kalmar FF | 4.00 | 23 % | -29.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Malmö FF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kalmar FF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Malmö FF
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Kalmar FF
- Kalmar FF2-2Malmö FF
- Kalmar FF2-2Malmö FF
- Malmö FF5-0Kalmar FF
- Kalmar FF1-0Malmö FF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Malmö FF – Kalmar FF?
Our model gives 1 · Malmö FF a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Malmö FF win 59 %, draw 23 %, Kalmar FF win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF – Kalmar FF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.