Vejlby Stadion
AGF
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AGF – Sønderjyske Fodbold
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.08 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AGF at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.08 goals for AGF and 1.11 for Sønderjyske Fodbold. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AGF took 2 points and Sønderjyske Fodbold 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for AGF, 2 draws, 1 win for Sønderjyske Fodbold. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 1.58 | 59 % | -6.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | -9.5 % |
| 2Sønderjyske Fodbold | 4.80 | 19 % | -5.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
AGF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- AGF
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Sønderjyske Fodbold
- AGF2-1Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Sønderjyske Fodbold1-1AGF
- AGF2-3Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Sønderjyske Fodbold1-1AGF
- Sønderjyske Fodbold1-4AGF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AGF – Sønderjyske Fodbold?
Our model gives 1 · AGF a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AGF win 59 %, draw 21 %, Sønderjyske Fodbold win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for AGF – Sønderjyske Fodbold?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.