Atalanta
Venezia
Atalanta – Venezia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atalanta at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Atalanta and 1.13 for Venezia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Atalanta took 6 points and Venezia no points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atalanta, 1 draw, 0 wins for Venezia. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atalanta | 1.54 | 60 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -0.5 % |
| 2Venezia | 5.50 | 17 % | +34.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Venezia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atalanta
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Venezia
- Atalanta0-0Venezia
- Venezia0-2Atalanta
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atalanta – Venezia?
Our model gives 1 · Atalanta a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atalanta win 51 %, draw 25 %, Venezia win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Atalanta – Venezia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.