Real Oviedo
Eibar
Real Oviedo – Eibar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Oviedo at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.20 for Eibar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Real Oviedo took 7 points and Eibar 15 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Real Oviedo, 2 draws, 1 win for Eibar. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Oviedo | 2.25 | 41 % | -15.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -9.2 % |
| 2Eibar | 3.25 | 29 % | +7.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Oviedo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eibar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Real Oviedo
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Eibar
- Eibar1-1Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo1-0Eibar
- Eibar0-2Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo0-0Eibar
- Eibar4-3Real Oviedo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Oviedo – Eibar?
Our model gives 1 · Real Oviedo a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Oviedo win 38 %, draw 29 %, Eibar win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Oviedo – Eibar?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.