PAOK
Kalamata
PAOK – Kalamata
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 11, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.24 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PAOK at home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.24 goals for PAOK and 0.83 for Kalamata. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, PAOK took 9 points and Kalamata 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PAOK | 1.19 | 78 % | -13.0 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +19.2 % |
| 2Kalamata | 11.00 | 8 % | +8.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
PAOK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kalamata
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PAOK – Kalamata?
Our model gives 1 · PAOK a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PAOK win 73 %, draw 17 %, Kalamata win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for PAOK – Kalamata?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.