Pakhtakor Tashkent
Al Qadsiah
Pakhtakor Tashkent – Al Qadsiah
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 0-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.95 – 2.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Qadsiah away from home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.95 goals for Pakhtakor Tashkent and 2.01 for Al Qadsiah. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Pakhtakor Tashkent took 7 points and Al Qadsiah 13 points. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pakhtakor Tashkent | 4.80 | 19 % | -24.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -24.3 % |
| 2Al Qadsiah | 1.62 | 58 % | +6.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Qadsiah
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pakhtakor Tashkent – Al Qadsiah?
Our model gives 2 · Al Qadsiah a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pakhtakor Tashkent win 16 %, draw 18 %, Al Qadsiah win 66 %.
What is the most likely score for Pakhtakor Tashkent – Al Qadsiah?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.