Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruz Azul away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.38 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.65 for Cruz Azul. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Pumas UNAM took 4 points and Cruz Azul 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Pumas UNAM, 2 draws, 2 wins for Cruz Azul. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pumas UNAM | 3.35 | 28 % | +6.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -8.8 % |
| 2Cruz Azul | 2.05 | 46 % | -12.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Pumas UNAM
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruz Azul
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Pumas UNAM
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Cruz Azul
- Pumas UNAM1-2Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul0-0Pumas UNAM
- Pumas UNAM2-2Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul2-3Pumas UNAM
- Cruz Azul3-2Pumas UNAM
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul?
Our model gives 2 · Cruz Azul a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pumas UNAM win 32 %, draw 25 %, Cruz Azul win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.