Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia – Mirassol
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bahia at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Bahia and 1.06 for Mirassol. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Bahia took 9 points and Mirassol 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Bahia, 1 draw, 1 win for Mirassol. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bahia | 1.71 | 55 % | -16.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +4.7 % |
| 2Mirassol | 4.30 | 22 % | +5.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Bahia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mirassol
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Bahia
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Mirassol
- Mirassol1-2Bahia
- Mirassol5-1Bahia
- Bahia1-1Mirassol
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bahia – Mirassol?
Our model gives 1 · Bahia a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bahia win 49 %, draw 27 %, Mirassol win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Bahia – Mirassol?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.