Cuiabá
Avaí
Cuiabá – Avaí
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 0.76
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cuiabá at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.66 goals for Cuiabá and 0.76 for Avaí. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Cuiabá took 8 points and Avaí 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Cuiabá, 1 draw, 2 wins for Avaí. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cuiabá | 1.64 | 57 % | -3.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Avaí | 5.25 | 18 % | -21.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Cuiabá
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Avaí
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Cuiabá
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Avaí
- Avaí1-0Cuiabá
- Avaí2-0Cuiabá
- Cuiabá2-2Avaí
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cuiabá – Avaí?
Our model gives 1 · Cuiabá a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cuiabá win 59 %, draw 26 %, Avaí win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Cuiabá – Avaí?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.