Flamengo
Fluminense
Flamengo – Fluminense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 0.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.01 goals for Flamengo and 0.93 for Fluminense. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Flamengo took 11 points and Fluminense 9 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Flamengo, 0 draws, 2 wins for Fluminense. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 1.41 | 66 % | -10.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +1.1 % |
| 2Fluminense | 7.00 | 13 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fluminense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Flamengo
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Fluminense
- Fluminense1-2Flamengo
- Fluminense2-1Flamengo
- Flamengo1-0Fluminense
- Flamengo0-2Fluminense
- Fluminense0-1Flamengo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo – Fluminense?
Our model gives 1 · Flamengo a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Flamengo win 63 %, draw 22 %, Fluminense win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Flamengo – Fluminense?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.