Juventude
São Bernardo
Juventude – São Bernardo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Juventude at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Juventude and 0.91 for São Bernardo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, Juventude took 9 points and São Bernardo 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Juventude, 0 draws, 0 wins for São Bernardo. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventude | 1.51 | 62 % | -21.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +8.0 % |
| 2São Bernardo | 6.50 | 14 % | +30.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Juventude
- Last 5 matches
- At home
São Bernardo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Juventude
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- São Bernardo
- São Bernardo0-1Juventude
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Juventude – São Bernardo?
Our model gives 1 · Juventude a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Juventude win 52 %, draw 28 %, São Bernardo win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Juventude – São Bernardo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.