América
Monterrey
América – Monterrey
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 61 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.19 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards América at home (61 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.19 goals for América and 1.11 for Monterrey. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, América took 10 points and Monterrey 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for América, 1 draw, 2 wins for Monterrey. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | 1.90 | 50 % | +15.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -26.1 % |
| 2Monterrey | 3.95 | 24 % | -27.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
América
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Monterrey
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- América
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Monterrey
- América1-0Monterrey
- América2-1Monterrey
- Monterrey2-0América
- Monterrey2-2América
- Monterrey1-0América
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América – Monterrey?
Our model gives 1 · América a 61 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América win 61 %, draw 21 %, Monterrey win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for América – Monterrey?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.