Al Shabab
Al Taawoun
Al Shabab – Al Taawoun
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Taawoun away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for Al Shabab and 1.51 for Al Taawoun. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. Over their last five matches, Al Shabab took 3 points and Al Taawoun 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Al Shabab, 1 draw, 3 wins for Al Taawoun. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shabab | 2.20 | 43 % | -26.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +2.0 % |
| 2Al Taawoun | 2.85 | 33 % | +13.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Shabab
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Taawoun
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Al Shabab
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Al Taawoun
- Al Shabab1-5Al Taawoun
- Al Taawoun2-0Al Shabab
- Al Taawoun2-2Al Shabab
- Al Shabab1-0Al Taawoun
- Al Taawoun1-0Al Shabab
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Shabab – Al Taawoun?
Our model gives 2 · Al Taawoun a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Shabab win 33 %, draw 27 %, Al Taawoun win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Shabab – Al Taawoun?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.