Olympiacos
Panathinaikos
Olympiacos – Panathinaikos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Olympiacos at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.62 goals for Olympiacos and 0.94 for Panathinaikos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Olympiacos took 10 points and Panathinaikos 15 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Olympiacos, 1 draw, 1 win for Panathinaikos. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Olympiacos | 2.20 | 42 % | +11.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -13.5 % |
| 2Panathinaikos | 3.35 | 28 % | -26.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Olympiacos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Panathinaikos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Olympiacos
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Panathinaikos
- Olympiacos1-0Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos0-2Olympiacos
- Olympiacos0-1Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos1-1Olympiacos
- Panathinaikos0-1Olympiacos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Olympiacos – Panathinaikos?
Our model gives 1 · Olympiacos a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Olympiacos win 51 %, draw 27 %, Panathinaikos win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Olympiacos – Panathinaikos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.