KV Mechelen
Sint-Truidense
KV Mechelen – Sint-Truidense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.06 – 1.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sint-Truidense away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.06 goals for KV Mechelen and 1.73 for Sint-Truidense. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, KV Mechelen took 2 points and Sint-Truidense 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for KV Mechelen, 1 draw, 4 wins for Sint-Truidense. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1KV Mechelen | 3.25 | 29 % | -17.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -9.4 % |
| 2Sint-Truidense | 2.10 | 44 % | +1.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
KV Mechelen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sint-Truidense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- KV Mechelen
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Sint-Truidense
- Sint-Truidense3-0KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-4Sint-Truidense
- Sint-Truidense1-0KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-3Sint-Truidense
- KV Mechelen1-1Sint-Truidense
Frequently asked questions
Who will win KV Mechelen – Sint-Truidense?
Our model gives 2 · Sint-Truidense a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: KV Mechelen win 25 %, draw 26 %, Sint-Truidense win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for KV Mechelen – Sint-Truidense?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.