Benfica
Vitória de Guimaraes
Benfica – Vitória de Guimaraes
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 81 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.66 – 0.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Benfica at home (81 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.66 goals for Benfica and 0.81 for Vitória de Guimaraes. Bookmakers say the same thing: 77 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Benfica took 12 points and Vitória de Guimaraes 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Benfica, 1 draw, 0 wins for Vitória de Guimaraes. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 1.20 | 77 % | -2.6 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | -27.1 % |
| 2Vitória de Guimaraes | 11.50 | 8 % | -20.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vitória de Guimaraes
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Benfica
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Vitória de Guimaraes
- Benfica3-0Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes0-3Benfica
- Vitória de Guimaraes0-3Benfica
- Benfica1-0Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes2-2Benfica
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Benfica – Vitória de Guimaraes?
Our model gives 1 · Benfica a 81 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Benfica win 81 %, draw 12 %, Vitória de Guimaraes win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Benfica – Vitória de Guimaraes?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.